Warren, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

872
FXUS61 KCLE 222326
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in the timing and evolution of heavier lake enhanced
snowfall tonight and Monday continues to increase. The Winter
Storm Watch for Southern Erie County in PA has been upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening through 7 AM
Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Erie
County lakeshore where the lower elevation will reduce amounts.
Additionally, the Ohio Winter Weather Advisories have been
expanded to include Erie and Huron Counties from 6 PM this
evening through 7 PM Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow transitions to bands of heavier lake enhanced
snow tonight which continues through Monday across portions of
north central and NE Ohio and NW PA. The greatest snow amounts
and resultant travel impacts will occur in the higher elevations
of the snowbelts. The heaviest snow will impact the Monday
morning commute.

2) A Clipper system will bring a quick shot of light snow to NE
Ohio and NW PA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, followed by
a potentially more impactful system Thursday. Confidence in the
precipitation type and track of the Thursday storm is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The much advertised big East Coast blizzard is starting to
organize this afternoon. Water vapor loops and RAP analysis show
a digging mid/upper trough over the Ohio Valley and southern
Great Lakes, with its axis taking on a negative tilt. This is
supporting intense dynamics near the coast characterized by
strong upper diffluence helping to strengthen low-level
convergence. As a result, surface low pressure is rapidly
strengthening offshore of Virginia and will lift north to just
offshore of Cape Cod by late Monday afternoon while bombing out
to around 970 mb.

For our area, light snow will continue areawide this evening
driven by the combination of the mid/upper trough and associated
PVA overhead and deep synoptic moisture wrapping back westward
beneath the trough. This snow has been low-impact, but as the
East Coast cyclone rapidly deepens tonight, much colder air
advecting into the region and traversing Lakes Huron and Erie,
boundary layer flow becoming well-aligned from the NNW, even
deeper wraparound synoptic moisture, and the continued presence
of the trough aloft will set up more intense bands of lake
enhanced snow. HREF members and the RGEM have come into much
better agreement on the timing and evolution of these lake
enhanced bands, with HREF probabilities for greater than 6
inches of snow in 24 hours (assuming a 15:1 ratio) now in the
50-60% range for much of the inland primary and secondary
snowbelts of north central and NE Ohio and 70-100% across
southern Erie County in PA. This makes sense with the expected
deep synoptic moisture and upsloping. Probabilities for greater
than 8 inches in 24 hours have increased to 25-35% in parts of
the north central and NE Ohio primary and secondary snowbelts
and 40-70% in southern Erie County, PA, so this will be a
classic upslope snow event.

The lake enhanced snow will start to set up after 00Z this
evening and will intensify overnight and Monday morning as
boundary layer moisture and instability deepens along with
strong Omega (lift) into the DGZ. The heaviest snowfall looks to
occur Monday morning due to an inverted surface trough hanging
back westward from the East Coast storm to the south shore of
Lake Erie. There is a strong signal for this trough and
associated enhancement of convergence on all HREF members and
the RGEM, as well as the RAP and operational NAM12. This boosts
confidence that the heaviest snowfall rates will occur from
roughly 09-17Z Monday. HREF probabilities for snowfall rates of
0.75 inch per hour have increased to 40-50% across southern
Erie County in PA and around 10% in parts of SE Cuyahoga,
northern Medina, northern Summit, and Geauga Counties in NE
Ohio during the Monday morning commute. This will lead to
treacherous travel. The snow will gradually lessen in intensity
Monday afternoon and eventually come to an end Monday night from
west to east as the convergence weakens and drier air/surface
ridging build into the area.

A couple of forecast challenges: First, warning amounts are very
possible in SE Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties. If that area of
stronger convergence sets up earlier tonight or persists deeper
into the afternoon Monday, then 8+ inches of snow could fall in
these areas. Capped amounts at 6 to 7 inches for now since am
already on the higher end of blended guidance and there is some
question as to how much open water is on the central and eastern
basins. Second, Ashland and Richland Counties, and to some
extent Portage and Trumbull Counties, may get Advisory-level
snow amounts as well. This depends on the orientation and inland
extent of the snow bands, so kept amounts in the 1-3 inch ranges
there for now (highest in northern parts of these counties).
Was confident enough to expand the Advisory into Erie and Huron
Counties in north central Ohio since there is a strong signal
in HREF and RGEM guidance for a Lake Huron band to affect that
area for a few hours Monday morning into the afternoon bringing
2-5 inch amounts. The NNW boundary layer flow and a more
definite area of open water near the Lake Erie Islands support
this idea.

Finally, the tight pressure gradient will lead to NW winds
gusting to 30-40 mph at times Monday. This will lead to some
minor blowing and drifting impacts where the heaviest snow
falls. Wind chill values will fall into the single digits Monday
night as the snow ends.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
The quieter weather Tuesday will be short-lived as a very active
pattern is expected to continue through the week. A fast moving
northern stream mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low
(Clipper system) will drop through the central and eastern Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Confidence is
increasing that this will put down a strip of light snow in far
northern Ohio and NW PA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
with the greatest amounts falling in far NE Ohio and NW PA
closer to the synoptic forcing. Confidence is lower regarding
the specific amounts but look to be in the sub Advisory range at
this time.

A stronger Clipper system on Thursday still looks to potentially
phase with southern stream energy leading to a deepening surface
low tracking into the Mid Atlantic or NE CONUS. Guidance
continues to significantly differ on the details of this system,
with the 12Z ECMWF now leaning toward the more suppressed and
lower impact Canadian solution, whereas, the GFS continues to
phase it farther NW and bring much greater precipitation into
our region. This gives low confidence to the amount of
precipitation and the precip types for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions across terminals this evening
due to both ceilings and visibilities in widespread light to
moderate snow showers. Anticipate for widespread IFR
visibilities with patchy IFR ceilings along and east of the I-71
corridor as lake enhanced snow spreads across the region. MVFR
to IFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period
lake enhanced snow showers persist through Monday night.

Northwest to north winds 8-12 knots this evening will increase
behind a trough Monday morning. Sustained winds increase to
12-18 knots with gusts of 20-28 knots possible.

Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected through Tuesday
night. Non-VFR likely on Wednesday in snow changing to rain/snow
with a clipper system. Non-VFR may return again on Thursday as
another system moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern over the next several days will be the increasing north
to northwest flow of 20 to 30 knots across Lake Erie (primarily the
western and central basin) tonight into Monday as a trough sweeps
southeast through the region. This will lead to abrupt southerly
shifts of the ice across Lake Erie, especially on Monday. Winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less Monday night, before shifting towards
the southwest on Tuesday, then west on Wednesday and increasing into
the 15 to 25 knot range. Winds appear to briefly increase out of the
northeast on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots, as a system passes just south
of the Lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for OHZ009-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ010>014-
     020-021-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ001-003.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Kahn