Warren, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

005
FXUS61 KCLE 271131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross from north to south through early
this evening. A ridge to the southwest will strengthen for
Monday and Tuesday, bringing a re-enforcing surge of heat. A
cold front crosses late Tuesday into Wednesday, with high
pressure building out of the Upper Midwest to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front extends from northern IL to southern and
eastern MI as of 3 AM, and will sag southeast across the local
area through this afternoon. There is little airmass change
across the front, though dew points do cool a few degrees.
Water vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude shortwave trough
(with a couple of embedded vort maxes) moving through the Great
Lakes. This shortwave will influence our area this morning
before gradually shifting east this afternoon...with weak
subsidence and height rises aloft behind the shortwave across
northern OH and into northwestern PA, especially after 18z. Once
the front clears this evening it will begin dissipating to our
south tonight. Weak surface high pressure will build in tonight,
with ridging aloft also dominating.

The main forecast concern will be continued shower and storm
potential along and ahead of the front. A decent scattering of
activity is expected into this morning across northern OH and
northwestern PA, especially east of Lake Erie, as lift from the
shortwave and a pool of greater instability over the lake try to
offset the early morning diurnal convective minimum. While we
begin losing synoptic support from the shortwave this afternoon,
likely leading to a temporary decrease in activity, heating and
building instability will allow scattered showers/storms to
fill back in this afternoon south of the front. A drying trend
is expected across the Toledo area through the morning, and in
the Cleveland and Erie areas by midday or early afternoon as the
front starts pushing south. Inland locales will likely have
isolated to scattered convection around through the late
afternoon or early evening, with all activity exiting southeast
and dissipating this evening. Made some adjustments to POPs in
an attempt to show relatively higher coverage across our
northern and eastern counties this morning with some synoptic
support, and then to show coverage decreasing from the
north/west late morning into the afternoon as highest POPs focus
inland. Lowered peak values of POPs a bit across the board,
especially this afternoon, as the synoptic support and peak
instability are a bit out of sync with some hi-res models
depicting rather limited coverage of afternoon convection.
Still, a good chunk of the area has "likely" wording at some
point (especially south and east) and will see some rain today.

Rather weak forcing and shear, along with poor mid-level lapse
rates, argue against severe weather potential for today and we
are not outlooked. However, fairly mixed low-levels and moderate
instability could support a strong downburst or two, with low
risk for an isolated instance of tree damage. Precipitable
waters will still hang up at 1.75-2.00" south of the sagging
front, so rain rates with convection will remain impressive.
There is little signal for organized or training storms in hi-
res models, so while rates will be there the overall concern
for isolated flash flooding is lower today.

Highs today will generally warm into the mid to upper 80s...
lower 80s into Northwest PA. Dew points remain in the low to
locally mid 70s today, which will drive heat index values across
northern OH to the low to mid 90s at their peak (upper 80s in
Northwest PA). Peak values are highest west of a Sandusky to
Marion line, with the forecast peak in the 95-98 degree range.
This is still safely shy of Heat Advisory criteria (100-104F for
two or more hours), so did not go with a headline. However, this
is yet another very warm/humid day in a prolonged stretch of
warmth and humidity, so those with sensitivities to heat,
outdoor plans, or a lack of proper AC should take precautions.
Conditions favor patchy fog formation tonight into early Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A hot and humid start to the work-week is in store, with a Heat
Advisory potentially needed for portions of the area Monday
and/or Tuesday. Lower potential for hit/miss showers and storms
also exists, though the heat will be the bigger story overall.

In terms of shower/storm potential, the upper ridging will flex
and send the jet stream to our north/east to start the week.
Shortwaves will move through the flow to our north/east Monday
afternoon and evening, and again late Tuesday. Each shortwave
may focus convection (that either moves in from upstream or
develops overhead)...however, proximity to upper ridging,
including warm and dry mid-levels, along with poor jet support
will work against organized convective potential. Have some
20-30% POPs in the forecast both Monday and Tuesday for now. The
cold front begins approaching from the northwest Tuesday night
which could focus higher POPs, though current indications are a
lack of greater forcing will still try to limit coverage and
organization of convection with the front into Tuesday night.

In terms of the heat, 850mb temperatures of about 20C on Monday
and 20-22C on Tuesday will support highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Tuesday may end up slightly hotter than Monday (and
perhaps a degree or two higher than the current forecast in
spots) if coverage of clouds and storms is minimal. Dew points
will remain in the low to mid 70s on Monday mainly west of I-77,
but likely will be a bit lower (60s) to the east. Deeper
moisture pushes in for Tuesday, with dew points in the upper 60s
and lower 70s east of I-77 and into the low to mid-70s to the
west, with some guidance suggesting dew points may feasibly push
into the 76-78F range in Northwest OH on Tuesday. Heat index
values will mainly top out in the 90s on Monday, with some
potential to reach 100F west of I-77 (mainly in Northwest OH)
where dew points are higher. Peak heat index values currently
range from the upper 90s to low 100s across the area on Tuesday.
Will need to monitor clouds/storm potential each day. The
impression is we`ll need some heat headlines for one or both
days, likely advisories, with the highest confidence west of
I-77 and in particular out towards Northwest OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A trough will carve out over the Northeast U.S. to end the week,
before shifting east as ridging starts returning from the west
into the weekend. The carving trough will push a cold front
through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night...the long-
awaited cold front, which has trended slightly slower in recent
guidance. Along with the cold front a shortwave will move
through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night,
encouraging shower and storm potential, especially along and
just north of the front itself. Models suggest most of this rain
will be ana-frontal, which would limit severe weather potential.
A drying trend is expected Thursday and beyond as Canadian high
pressure builds out of the Upper Midwest, with temperatures and
dew points falling below average too. Wednesday will still be a
warm day with highs well into the 80s, with highs in the 70s to
near 80 Thursday-Saturday. Overnight lows will cool into the 60s
Wednesday night, with 50s common Thursday-Saturday nights (the
lakeshore may stay in the 60s. It would not be shocking if a
few sites in interior eastern OH and interior PA dip into the
40s Friday night, quite a turnaround after recent temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The convection across the region continues to be weakly forced,
making it difficult to key in on any specific time periods for
SHRA/TSRA formation to occur. There will be a pressure trough
working basically north to south, and as it does, in its wake,
chances for convective activity should wane. High resolution
models are also downplaying activity ahead of the trough, with
much of it along the southern fringe, so will be going with a
forecast that has the bulk of any SHRA/TSRA within the first 6
hours. Also introducing fog after 06Z Monday for most terminals.

Outlook...Non- VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds 10-15kts today bring wave heights Cleveland and east
1-3ft before becoming offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave
heights decreasing to less than a foot into Monday. Winds then
become light and variable Monday through Monday night keeping wave
heights less than a foot. Changes occur Tuesday when a couple of
cold fronts come through, one Tuesday and then a stronger one
Tuesday night, bringing winds offshore from Wednesday through the
end of the week. Highest wave heights in this period will be 2-4ft
Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26